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The Cardinal Rule of Home Buying
If You’re Buying A Home, You’ve GOT To Read This!
I’ve worked with so many buyers I’ve lost track. First time home buyers are especially fun to work with because, well, they listen to you. LOL!
I’ve had very few problems with this particular issue but I know some agents who have had issues and this information could save your home purchase
Whether you are a first time home buyer or a move up home buyer doesn’t matter. This information applies to ANYONE buying a home now or in the future.
Are you ready for this tidbit of wisdom?? Brace yourself cause it’s comin’!
THE Cardinal Rule of Home Buying
So you’re looking and you’ve found a home with your friendly neighborhood Realtor, namely me 
! We enter escrow and you start preparing to move. Knowing you are moving into a home larger than what you’ve been living in, you need more furniture.
QUESTION: Do you go out and buy brand new furniture on credit? NO YOU DON’T!
When you’re in escrow, DON’T BUY ANYTHING, DON’T GET MARRIED, DON’T BE LATE ON ANY PAYMENT!
Ahem!
When you’re purchasing a home, your credit report is hugely important. Any changes in your credit report can kill your loan especially any late payments. Your credit report will be pulled twice – once when you apply for your mortgage and again to verify nothing has changed just before your lender funds your loan.
You could be ready to move, movers scheduled, move out inspection with your landlord scheduled (and your home is already rented to someone else!), all of your stuff is packed and in boxes when your lender calls and says “Ummm, Houston, we have a problem!”
Now your wife or husband will hate you, the kids are ticked off cause they aren’t going to swim in the nice pool in the backyard of the foreclosure you just bought at a 20% discount to appraised value and you have to postpone Christmas with your in-laws (bad thing?) in your new home because YOU DID SOMETHING MORONIC!
If you do decide to buy something on credit or get married or are late on a payment that reports to credit reporting agencies, it could be a year to two years before you can buy again. That means, in our current market, that you could be priced out of the market as when you make mistakes like this, prices go up on you just to test your commitment to purchase. (Trust me, it happens! Murphy dictated)
Have any more questions about purchasing a home in the Sacramento, Rocklin or Roseville real estate markets? Please call, text, email or simply fill out the form below and I’ll get right back to you.
Thanks for visiting!
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We’re Going To Lose 20% More Home Value?
Really?
Lately, a very well respected housing/market analyst, A. Gary Shilling, has come out saying that housing will drive the country into a second recession in 2012 and that housing will lose another 20% in value or more. Click here.
The premise of his prediction is the current inventory levels of homes for sale is so high and demand is so low that it will be 4 to 5 years before all of the inventory available for sale is absorbed by buyers.
“Over supply is the enemy of values” Mr. Shilling has cited and I agree with him wholeheartedly.
Is that what is going to happen in the Sacramento region? Will there be another drop in values of 20% or more? I can’t answer that question and honestly, neither can A. Gary Shilling although I believe his logic to be very sound.
What about the Sacramento real estate market? Do we have an oversupply of homes on the market right now? Is it coming and if so, from where?
Homes For Sale In The Sacramento and Placer County Real Estate Markets
Currently, Sacramento county has about 2.7 months of inventory available for sale and that has been trending downward since a high of 4.3 months at the beginning of the year.
While I don’t believe this is relevant industry wide right now, a “balanced” market inventory level, favoring neither buyers or sellers, is said to be 6 months worth of homes for sale. Sacramento county hasn’t had 6 months of inventory on the market since April/May of 2008 which would signify a shortage of homes available for sale, aka a seller’s market, yet….prices have gone down. In a seller’s market where the selection of homes to purchase is low and buyer demand is high drives prices upward.
The Sacramento county real estate market has averaged 3.02 months of inventory for sale over the last 3 years. This is not a glut of homes for sale or an oversupply of homes for sale according to what has commonly been accepted by the industry.
As the above graph and table indicate, over the last 10 months, the total number of homes for sale has declined, not increased, 22.5%. In Placer county the numbers are very similar.
In both Placer and Sacramento counties, the picture is the same. Inventory is down to under 3 months of inventory, pending sales have risen and sales have been very steady.
So what about the rest of the country? If there are so many housing units available for sale, where are they? Fortunately, I have many Realtor friends throughout the nation and I took advantage of those connections to get a feel for what everyone else is seeing throughout.
Over the last week, I called or emailed agents in 12 different market across the country. Here’s what I found out:
Jonathan Bunn, TheRealEstateBakery.com, Washington DC – Jonathan has been around and reporting on the DC market from his blog for at least 3 years. He said that the DC market is an anomaly compared to the rest of the nation right now. They do not have an over supply issue currently.
Scott Saghirian, TopTechAgent.com, Maryland – Scott told me in an email that areas outside the “hub” do have an oversupply of homes but that the DC area is in better shape than many other markets across the country without a large supply of foreclosures or short sales.
Chad Lariscy, North Georgia Mountains, TheFrontPorchView.com - Chad told me that “Market is crazy. Foreclosures are still dominating, about 64% of all sales. Land and Vacant Lot has seen about 70% depreciation. As far as inventory, we are hurting for the good stuff to sell. The good ones are gone quickly!”
Chad’s market is a second home market primarily. Most of his buyers come from the Atlanta area and anyone looking for property in the Blue Ridge Mountains.
Thomas Ferent, MrLakeFront.net, Maine – Tom’s market is a second home market as well. Tom said, “Yes, too much supply and not enough demand is driving prices lower.”
Leigh Fortuna, MiamiSelectRealEstate.com, Miami, Florida – The Miami market is a market unto it’s own. They have a very high percentage of foreign investors and home buyers coming into there market. Leigh says that the Miami market is not oversupplied at all.
She believes, as I’m beginning to about the Sacramento real estate market, that Nevada, California, Florida and Arizona will be coming out of this earlier than the rest of the country as these states ran up very quickly while other states did not. Therefore, if there is another 20% to lose, it won’t be in the states that were affected earlier into the downturn but will be the states that felt the downturn in 2008 or 2009 or later.
TJ Harris, FountainhillsUpClose.com, Phoenix, Arizona – TJ spoke with me at length about her market and what she is seeing. She said they have low inventory and multiple offers on anything that is a quality listing. She said the rental market is going gangbusters right now and also that foreclosure filings are down as well as short sales being able to get done much quicker than in the past few years.
Kari Lundin, DuplexChick.com, Minneapolis, Minnesota – Kari told me that this week alone, her market is down 16.1% in new listings coming onto the market. She believes though that there is a window of opportunity for sellers in her market and that the low supply issues could be short lived.
Paul Reddam, Homesville.com, Austin, Texas – Paul says that in his market, he has yet to work with a foreclosure or a short sale. I envy him as that seems to be all I deal with. He says his market is not oversupplied in the least and that sales are brisk. He sees prices rising in the Austin area.
When the Sacramento region market was riding high in 2005, 2006 and 2007, the Austin market was tanking. Now we’re tanking and the Austin market is moving along nicely.
Ro Troia, BlogTheRocklies.com, Boulder/Denver market – Ro told me that the high end properties are moving better than they were last year and that they have no oversupply of homes for sale in fact they are bordering not having much to sell. She mentioned condos are slow and the rate of foreclosures and short sales is declining. Prices are stable in her market.
Kathy Vaughan, GardenValleyCurrents.com, Garden Valley, Idaho – Kathy emailed me today and said that her market is oversupplied with homes for sale right now. Sales are up 75% over last year yet inventory is up 50% over last year.
Dr. John McMillen, ClovisExperts.com, Clovis, California – John and I have been friends for some time as we both are active reporters of real estate conditions in our respective markets. He says that their inventory situation is much like that of the Sacramento region.
From a newsletter John sent me “The number of foreclosures entering the market continues to remain fairly low but steady and from all the sources I follow I have heard that it will continue to do so. We continue to bump along this bottom with a slight uptick in prices due to the multiple offers out there but will probably ease back down again after summer. All the industry experts continually state that we have several more years of this to contend with unless the wild card is played….the High Speed Rail.”
Jack LeVine, VeryVintageVegas.com, Las Vegas, Nevada – Jack is a very busy agent in the vintage home market in Las Vegas and has been for years. He told me today that in the section of the market he specializes in there is a lack of quality homes to sell. Las Vegas was and still is the hotbed of foreclosure activity in the nation.
Jack says he doesn’t see how it would be possible for values to decline another 20% when every listing he tracks is selling for more than list and has multiple offers. As well as Miami, he says there are a lot of foreign investors from Canada and China purchasing in his market currently. Las Vegas is an investors heaven right now according to Jack.
Is There An Inventory Issue or Isn’t There?
Out of the 12 agents I’ve spoken with, only 2 to 3 said they have an oversupply of homes to sell. The remaining agents surveyed said that indeed they don’t have enough homes to sell or they are not oversupplied.
There has been rumors that the banks were going to suddenly release a lot of the homes they are currently sitting on to the market. When you think about it, that would be kind of a dumb thing to do. The FDIC has already lifted the restrictions on the banks and lenders to allow them to keep non performing assets on their “books” as long as they like. Dumping homes onto the market would cost them billions in lost home values.
My Take
My feeling is that California, Arizona, Nevada and Florida, being the first into the housing downturn and hit the hardest, will be spared further “free falling” of home values but the other areas of the nation where there are unemployment issues who got into the downturn late and didn’t have a huge run up in home prices will be affected by larger value losses.
I see the Sacramento regional real estate market to continue to decline gradually but I don’t see an enormous drop of 20% or more on our horizon. 6% to 10%? Perhaps but 20% just doesn’t seem possible due to market conditions right now.
As the 8 ball so aptly states…”all signs point to no”. 
What do you think? Will our market lose 20% more or will we just bump along the bottom till a full on recovery? Chime in!
Looking for an agent to help you buy a home in the Sacramento region? Please call, email, text or simply fill out the form below and we’ll be in touch with you promptly.
Looking for the value of your Rocklin or Roseville home? Please go to Rocklin House Values.com or Roseville House Values.com for up to date values of homes in your neighborhood.
Thanks for visiting!
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Could The Sacramento Region Lose 20% More In Home Values?
A. Gary Shilling Is Convinced It Will
This information/prediction has been around a while and largely I had ignored it. Anything that seems too improbable, too far out there I tend to gloss over thinking “that’s nice but doesn’t seem realistic”.
Case/Schiller has come out and said that over the next 3 to 5 years real estate will lose up to 26% more value. That would put roughly 50% of homeowners nationwide underwater on their mortgages and could cause a mass exodus from homes and that, in turn, could cause another financial system meltdown.
Or maybe not. 
A. Gary Shilling, however, is one of the prognosticators who got the downturn right, predicted the sub prime mess as well as not agreeing with most economists last year when the market appeared to be rebounding. (He was correct there too.)
Massive Oversupply Of Homes
The basis of his contention for another 20% drop in home prices hinges on the fact that, currently, there are roughly 4 million homes available for sale when the new and existing working inventories create roughly 2.5 million homes for sale per year. This leaves an excess of about 1.5 million homes in addition to the “shadow” inventory of 500,000 additional homes to work through a system that is not built for speed, as it were.
This leaves 2 million in excess homes to be sold on top of the 2.5 million that are the normal working inventory in the industry. A glut of homes available will then drive prices down until the 2 million additional homes are absorbed.
That could take years in a selling environment where mortgage standards have tightened more so than what is needed, an entire segment of buyers is not motivated to purchase and a recovery of home sales just isn’t happening.
By the way, last I checked, we’re not selling 2.5 million homes this year nor did we last year according to the National Association of Realtors.
So What’s This Mean?
The average home that sells in Rocklin is 4 beds, 2.5 baths, 2400 square feet and is selling for around $317,000 currently. In 2006, that same home averaged a sales price of $533,326.
If home values decline 20% more over the next 2 years to the bottom in 2013, where Mr. Shilling says the bottom of the market will be, that would make this same home worth $254,000 in 2013, a 52% decrease in the average sales price in the 95765 zip code of Rocklin.
Considering the state of our local economy where the two biggest employers, the State of California and the housing industry, are severely depressed right now, it seems fathomable that this could occur especially here.
What’s A. Gary Shilling’s advice? “Sell your house, second home or investment single family houses yesterday, if you plan to do so any time soon…Excess inventories are likely to push down prices another 20%.”
As a parting comment, Mr. Shilling also says that his prediction “may be optimistic because declines tend to overshoot on the downside just as bubbles do on the upside.”
Not good news.
More Information
To find more information on A. Gary Shilling, Google “Gary Shilling sell your home yesterday” for the complete thesis. Hunt around and see who is quoting him. I was very surprised and am now beginning to believe this could happen here in Rocklin and the Sacramento region.
Also Yahoo! video, The Daily Ticker, had Mr. Shilling as a guest. Google “20% drop in housing to cause recession in 2012 Gary Shilling” and it should come up. Click here for the link.
If you’re underwater on your mortgage, having trouble making your mortgage payments or need to relocate and sell your home, whether you have equity or not, please contact us. We specialize in short sales with a professional negotiation staff whose sole function is to negotiate with your lender to get your short sale through. Best of all, our services cost you nothing as our fees are covered by your lender from the proceeds of the sale of your home.
As always, please consult your financial professionals to confirm with them the current ramifications of selling your home for less than you owe.
To contact me, please call, email, text or simply fill out the form below and we’ll get back to you promptly.
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New California Law: Code of Civil Procedure 580e Amended
Goodbye Deficiency Judgments!
An amendment to Chapter 82 of the California Code of Civil Procedure 580e was put into effect Friday, July 15th, 2011 concerning deficiency judgments when selling a home of not more than 4 units for less than what is owed on the mortgage.
A deficiency judgment is a legal tool that allows a lender can come after the homeowner for the difference between what is owed on the home and what the final sales price of the home through the legal system. This amendment forces lenders to take what they get and be done with it, accepting the proceeds of sale as settlement of the debt provided that:
1) The property is transferred to a buyer by a deed of trust (aka sold to another buyer)
2) The lender has approved the sale and proceeds of sale go to the lender minus costs of sale.
and
3) There is no fraud involved.
Previously, this applied only to first mortgages but now, with this amendment, all mortgages are included.
The state found this change in the code so important that they decided not to wait until the first of the year to enact it and it is in effect now.
Click here for the language of the amendment.
What This Means
This is the second law enacted this year to help homeowners to avoid foreclosure by selling their home “short”. Selling a home short means that you are selling your home for less than you owe on your mortgage.
Effective January 1 of this year, a law was passed to include all first mortgages whether they were a “purchase money” loan or a refinance. A purchase money loan is the original loan secured to purchase the property.
This amendment changes that to include all mortgages, secured by residential real estate of not more than 4 units provided that it is not owned by a corporation or political subdivision of the state. Additionally, this law will not apply if the mortgage is given to secure the payment of bonds or other evidence of indebtedness. Generally, this doesn’t apply to the average homeowner.
Ramifications Of Selling Your Home Short
With the Governor’s signature on SB 458, all hurdles aside from one have been removed from selling your home short. The only real ramification of selling your home short, aside from a short term credit hit, is owing taxes on the difference between what the property has sold for and the amount owed as the IRS counts this as income.
Most are finding that not even this is dramatic enough to be concerned about but just to be safe, always consult a CPA with regard to the tax issues of selling your home for less than what is owed. I have a CPA referral. If you need one, please let me know.
Avoiding Foreclosure
On the federal level, all programs instituted by the current administration to avoid foreclosures have been an abysmal failure, hands down. Nothing has worked. However, on the state level, laws have been enacted making going through the short sale process and avoiding foreclosure as easy and ramification free as possible for homeowners.
It’s the common sense thing to do. With the possibility that real estate values could plunge an additional 20% or more in the coming year or two, we need laws that protect homeowners from what they didn’t create and what was forced upon them by the financial system of this country.
Click here for an article concerning where our market could be headed.
Our state government doesn’t want to see anyone go through the foreclosure process when it can be easily avoided. The banking system is now on board by shortening time frames to approve short sales and, in some cases, compensating homeowners to sell short.
This should be resoundingly applauded.
The plain fact is this: No matter what your situation, keeping an asset (aka your home) that is worth less than what you owe is a form of long term financial suicide. There are no comparisons to this housing recession and housing recessions of the past. There is no precedent to determine what could happen in the near term.
What economists do agree on is that we’re not close to being out of the woods on this one. Not close at all.
With most economists expecting that values will not be recovered in our market for the length of the average mortgage term, getting out from underneath your underwater mortgage is a smart financial decision.
If you are considering selling your home, whether you need to sell it short of your mortgage balance or not, please call, email, text or simply fill out the form below and I’ll get right back to you. Our goal is to help as many homeowners as possible.
Looking for the value of your Rocklin or Roseville home? Go to Rocklin House Values.com or Roseville House Values.com for detailed info on home values in your neighborhood.
Thanks for visiting!
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Is It A Good Time To Buy A Home?
I Think So..Here’s Why
The Sacramento regional real estate market has been pummeled since 2007. Foreclosure and short sales have been the buzz words as well as my personal favorite, “submit your highest and best offer”. Counter offers have virtually vanished from the industry if submitting on a bank owned home.
Lately, however, market indicators are pointing the way toward a housing stabilization. We are now somewhat free of government intervention and as such, there hasn’t been any incentive (other than historically low interest rates and home prices) to purchase other than the desire to do so.
Understand that a shift must be made in our thinking of what buying a principal residence, your personal home, represents – a place to live not an investment.
There is a distinction between principal residence and investment residence purchases. The market correction that we have been experiencing since 2007 has put an end, even if temporarily, to the thought that our principal residence is an investment. Principal residence purchases and an investment residence purchases are done so with differing sets of goals and considerations.
That said, it’s a good time to buy either an investment or principal residence and here’s why:
Interest Rates Are Low
As of July 7th, the average 30 year mortgage interest rate was 4.60% according to FreddieMac.com. The term average suggests that even lower interests rates are available for a 30 year fixed mortgage.
Home Prices Are Below 10 Year Lows
The average sales price in Sacramento County in June of 2011 is $11K lower than June of 2001. See the graph below.
This is the case in Placer County as well where the average sales price is $4K below the 10 year average.
In both graphs, you can see that in the last year, the price declines have not been as steep as they were from 2007 to 2009. Couple that with a luke warming of the economic picture nationwide and this is what the majority of economists saying there are positive signs in housing. The report is for a slowing in the home value declines to a stabilization in home prices as early as the end of 2011 to 2012.
A slowing of value declines means that your initial investment has a higher probability of remaining intact aka..you won’t lose your down payment to value declines and if you do, it won’t be much. Reference the rethinking of what a principal residence purchase is mentioned above.
The old adage holds true for the purchasing of anything and that is to “buy low and sell high”. Right now, we’re in the buy low phase.
Deduction of Mortgage Interest
The deduction of mortgage interest, while it’s still here, is a great incentive to purchase a home. The write off alone saves thousands of dollars each year in taxes. Did you know that we are one of the only countries in the world to have this home owning benefit? Not even Canada allows their home owners to write off their mortgage interest.
Financially, there are pluses and minuses to this but right now, it’s definitely an incentive to purchase.
And Finally…It’s Cheaper To Buy Than Rent
The average home sold in Rocklin since March 1, 2011 was 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 2431 square feet and sold for $316,673. With a 10% down payment at the prevailing average interest rate of 4.60%, the payment on this home with principal, taxes, interest and PMI would be $1790.93 per month. With 20% down, the monthly mortgage payment would be $1628.59.
To rent a 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath home in Rocklin, according to Craigslist.org right now, costs $2122.50 per month. That’s a 10 home average rental cost. Not to mention you get the mortgage interest deduction saving you thousands more per year in the process.
Averaging the two payments above together, purchasing would cost and average of $1709.76 while the average cost of renting the same home is $2122.50. Buying a home saves over $400 per month in this scenario in monthly costs in the Rocklin area alone.
There is a lot of doom and gloom in the market news right now and people are afraid to purchase. What we’ve been through in housing has been dramatic but that’s in the past. Home ownership affords you advantages that renting does not.
All of the above information was pulled from public sources and is verifiable. If you have just good credit and a smallish down payment, you should definitely consider purchasing a home and soon.
Looking for an agent to purchase a home in the greater Sacramento area? Please give me a call, email, text or simply fill out the form below and I’ll get back to you promptly.
Looking for the value of your Rocklin or Roseville home? Go to Rocklin House Values.com or Roseville House Values.com for up to date home values in your neighborhood.
Thanks for visiting!
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Rocklin Real Estate Market Stabilizing
95677 Bouncing Around A Little
Both zip codes of Rocklin are beginning to stabilizing. Prices still might be trending down slightly, according to most economists, but none the less, the last 4 months have see relatively stable activity in all areas of the market – sales, pending sales, months of inventory, average sales price – all a beginning a trend of stabilization.
With no current government intervention, at the moment, the market is seeking it’s level and hopefully by year end, we will be done with significant value losses and we can then begin to climb out of the hole that has been created.
While pending sales took a spike in May, that seems to be the only blip in the 95677 Rocklin real estate market. That is a blip that we like to see. More sales and more homes running through the sales cycle.
The number of homes, as the graph illustrates, coming on the market has declined significantly but this is the trend region wide.
Average Sales Price Spikes
Since the beginning of the year, the average sales price in the 95677 zip code of Rocklin has been climbing. Over the last 3 months, however, the average sales price has leveled off in the mid $270’s. I suspect, if all things remain as consistent as they have been, that the average sales price will begin to bounce around in a relatively small range.
The 95677 zip has a wide variety of price points that 95765 zip code doesn’t have. As a result, it’s difficult to draw much from the below graph other than general information.
Available Homes For Sale Declines
Over the last 6 months, the total number of homes for sale in the Rocklin area has been declining. In 95677 zip code, there is only 1.8 months of available homes for sale at the current pace of sales, down almost 54%.
There are still multiple offers being submitted on all homes that are of reasonable quality. Homes that need a dramatic amount of fix up are staying on the market depending on the price.
While the 95677 zip code of the Rocklin real estate market is bouncing around a little more than the 95765 zip code, the stabilization in the market is clear. I hope we’re coming out the other end of the tunnel. That would be a nice change.
Are you looking for the value of your Rocklin or Roseville home? Go to Rocklin House Values.com or Roseville House Values.com for up to date home values in your neighborhood.
Looking to buy or sell a home? Please call, email, text or simply fill out the form below and we’ll get back to you promptly.
Thanks for visiting!
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Rocklin Homes For Sale At 6 Month Low
Down Almost 71% Since January 1st
While there are many good signs in our real estate market, it would be better if there were more homes for buyers to select from. As it is, the 95765 zip code of Rocklin has experienced a 70.9% decrease in the number of homes available for sale in the last 6 months.
There are buyers in the market place as the pending sales have stayed relatively steady all year long.
It is a good time to buy a principal residence. Prices are lower than they have been and the economy is keeping interest rates low as well. The 30 year average fixed mortgage interest rate, according to FreddieMac.com, is 4.60%.
Average Sales Price Dips
While the average sales price dipped in June, it’s really more appropriate to say that the average sales price stayed stable as most economists believe that sales prices will bounce along the bottom of the market for the rest of the year and next year as well. The worst case scenarios have our market losing up to 6% by year end.
This is a doom and gloom outlook and not shared by many economists but most seem to agree on about a 3% or 3.5% drop is likely by year end.
Home Sales Stabilize
It seems that a sign that the real estate market is beginning to become healthy is a stabilization in sales, pending sales, sales prices, inventory levels, a decrease in foreclosure filings – all of this is going on in our market right now.
The graph below illustrates the stability the market has demonstrated over the last 4 months.
While there is not quite enough information here to consider this a trend yet, it is beginning to look like trends are emerging that we could be at or nearing the bottom of the market. If that’s the case, it’s not only a good time to buy but the best time to buy a home in the Sacramento regional real estate market.
There seems to be a relative calm in the market right now and things look like they are getting better albeit slowly but better none the less. What can be safely said is that, while history does tend to generally repeat itself, home values won’t be skyrocketing anytime soon.
This is a good thing. Slow and steady improvement is healthy for the market as it seeks to convey confidence to buyers and sellers. It looks like, according to the emerging trend, we’re getting there.
Looking for the value of your Rocklin or Roseville home? Go to Rocklin House Values.com or Roseville House Values.com for up to date home values in your neighborhood.
Need to purchase or sell a home in Rocklin or Roseville? Please call, email, text or simply fill out the form below and we’ll get back to you promptly.
Thanks for visiting!
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