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Rocklin Home Sales Report – November 2011
Home Sales Steady
Homes sales in Rocklin real estate have been steady all year long. Seems that prices being relatively stable, so to speak, have maintained buyer interest which has resulted in homes sales keeping pace with month after month.
Rocklin real estate sales in the 95765 zip code have yet to dip under 40 home sales per month with only two months below 50 homes sold all year whereas the last 3 months of 2010, as indicated in the graph, were all below 40 sales per month. That’s encouraging.
Average Sales Price? It’s Like A Teeter Totter
If you look at the table, it reads that the average sales price dipped 4.3% over the last year but I don’t think that is entirely accurate. I don’t know how you can tell what prices are doing when they have been bouncing along all year long. Up then down then back up again. Seems like every 2 months it shoots up then comes back down the next month.
Over the last year, the average sales price has been a high of $339,000 and a low of $296,000 but both of those numbers are surrounded by lower values on the high end and higher values on the low end. To say prices have dropped 4.3% just doesn’t mean much when values are bouncing around like that. It can be safely said that home values may be declining slightly but how much is tough to estimate. This is a good thing.
Sales Are Good But Where Are The Homes To Sell?
The total number of homes for sale has been declining all year long. That’s my rendition of the proverbial broken record as I’ve been saying that constantly.
These numbers are a little easier to explain. There are several reasons why there are fewer homes available to sell.
1) Many mortgages in Rocklin real estate are dramatically underwater. This means, if you haven’t heard by now, that more is owed on them then they are worth. Why this is relevant is because people who live in them can’t move and if they do move, they are selling their homes in a short sale or the home is going to foreclosure.
If they sell short or go to foreclosure, they have to rent for at least 2 to 3 years before they can buy again. In either case, they aren’t moving up and putting their homes on the market.
2) Banks aren’t foreclosing in a timely manner and when they do, only a small portion of those homes are coming on the market. I spoke to a friend of mine today who has been living in his home without paying the mortgage for a year and a half. The bank hasn’t filed a notice of default on the home and he has gotten no calls from his lender about this issue.
Lenders are delaying the foreclosure process and metering homes out over a longer period of time so those distressed homes aren’t coming on the market either.
Being down to a month and a half of available homes to sell in Rocklin real estate is a very low.
Looking for a home in the Rocklin real estate market? Have a home to sell and are underwater on your mortgage? We here to help if you need a Realtor you can count on. Please call, text, email or simply fill out the form below and I’ll get back to you promptly.
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Average Sales Price Declines In Sacramento Real Estate
Down 7.6% Over The Last 30 Days
With exception to last month, the average sales price in Sacramento had been relatively steady but over the last 30 days it has taken a bit of an unexpected dive. We haven’t seen an average sales price under $160K since the downturn began but here we are at an average sales price of $159K for the month of September.
I find this a little unusual as sales are up for September and in fact, sales were the higher last month than they have been in a couple of years. Sales were up 10.7% over the last month, 57.9% over the last 12 months and 52.6% over the last 15 months. For prices to decline at a time when sales are higher than they have been in years just points to a unsettled market.
Normally, when prices and interest rates are this low, sales are as high as they have been since March of this year and inventory levels are below 3 months of homes available for sale at the current sales pace, you’d expect prices to edge up a little but they are not.
There are a lot of positive indicators in the Sacramento real estate market right now but is it time to buy? I’ll be writing an article on that topic later today so stay tuned for that.
Months Of Inventory Available Remains Stable
The selection of homes for sale has been anemic all year long at below 3 months of homes for sale at the pace of sales for that month. The decline in available homes for sale is easy to explain.
1) The banks have slowed the foreclosure process down to a snails pace for many reasons so we haven’t had the level of bank owned homes coming on the market as we’ve had in past years.
2) There is a very high percentage of mortgages underwater in the Sacramento region. While there are a lot of people doing the smart thing and walking away from these loans, many more are not. Those who are not walking away are essentially trapped and can’t move so those homes aren’t coming on the market.
Both of these factors are creating a bit of an inventory shortage in the area. Taking into consideration that the recent increase in foreclosure actions by the banks probably won’t create an inventory increase by much, I think we can expect the current inventory levels to persist providing things stay as they have this year.
Summary
The Sacramento real estate market is still, and will be for some time, in a place where downward movement is possible. While I believe that the market could continue to decline further, I don’t think we’ll see a dramatic trend downward like we saw from 2007 to 2009. To presume, definitively, that one knows which direction the market will go is foolish. My assessment is based on the last six months of home sales results.
Most of this year has been relatively stable with not much movement in either direction. There have been subtle changes but mostly the Sacramento real estate market has been bouncing along in a narrow range. Six months is enough time to have established a trend in the Sacramento real estate market and the trend we’re seeing, as far as real estate sales is concerned, has been flat.
Looking to purchase or sell a home in the Sacramento real estate market? Please call, text, email or simply fill out the contact form below and I’ll get back to you promptly.
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Short Sale Success In Lincoln!
1192 Davmore Lane, Lincoln
1192 Davmore Lane in Lincoln is a very nice house in the Lincoln Crossing area. It has 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms and is about 3200 sq. ft. with a beautiful pool that sits on one of the larger lots in the neighborhood.
One tandem, 2 car garage and a single car garage with a huge dining/living room combo.
My buyers are moving down from Redding over the next few weeks and they got a nice deal on a great home.
This home closed at $300,000 even. The seller’s got $3000 from the HAFA program for moving expenses but they just banked that as they had purchased a home one street over long before going through the short sale process. This is becoming more common.
While doing some marketing in the area, I met the seller who told me his decision to sell the home was solely based on the fact that he was 
severely underwater on his mortgage and wasn’t going to suffer financially for something that he was not responsible for referencing the crash of the housing market by Wall Street firms.
This sentiment is pervasive right now in the Sacramento region as well as the rest of the world. The “Occupy Wall Street” movement is a prime example of the growing dissatisfaction with the inability of the government to act against those responsible for our current economic crash.
The former owner of this home said that in his sphere of friends, it’s the ongoing topic of conversation.
In his case, they were able to qualify for another home, purchased that and let the home on Davmore go to short sale. The HAFA program provided a mini “bailout” of sorts from the government and, due to new California laws preventing deficiency judgments against homeowners on any mortgage be it purchase money, refinance, first or second mortgages, they walked away with just a blemish on their credit report that will be healed in a couple of years.
This is a far better option than being saddled with underwater mortgage debt for the next 10 to 15 years if not longer. He understood that this could cost him everything in his family’s future and wasn’t going to stand for it. I applaud the courage it took to make that decision.
If you’ve considered selling your home short and need some advice please call us. We’ll provide you with objective information so that you can make the best decision for you and your family whether you intend to retain us or not. We’d like to help regardless of your situation.
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Has The Bottom Of Sacramento Housing Market Been Reached?
The Last 6 Months Suggests Maybe It Has
Calling the bottom of the real estate market is impossible. The best you can do is get close and when you’re close, it’s time to buy. You’d be getting the lowest price and right now, at the lowest interest rate if you were financing your purchase.
I wrote an article about the Lincoln Crossing real estate market in Lincoln and was a little surprised to see that over the last 6 months, the market had been mostly flat. No declines or advances in the home values in that area of Lincoln.
What prompted this was an appraisal I got back on a home I have in escrow in Lincoln. The appraisal form has a check box that indicates whether the market is appreciating, is stable or is declining.
The box checked was “stable”. I know over the last year, most of the region has lost value but what about the last 6 months? Sure enough, the numbers indicated that the average sales price in Lincoln was, month over month, selling in a very narrow range between $211K to $218K.
I then got curious about where the Sacramento county market had been headed over the last 6 months. Of the 56 zip codes in Sacramento county 40 of them had viable real estate sales statistics to draw from.
Of the 40 viable zips, only 3 of them had declining values over the last 6 months. The rest were either flat or appreciating slightly. The graph and table below is a good graphic depicting this.
Banks Holding Homes Off The Market?
All year, the number of available homes for sale has been declining. As of now, there is roughly 2.7 months of homes available for sale in Sacramento County.
During a time of the year where you’d expect increases in the total number of homes available for sale, inventory levels have been going down.
We know the banks own roughly 113,000 homes in California. How many of those are on the market is unclear. There are 230,000 homes in California in foreclosure and 650,000 homes are behind on their mortgage. Doesn’t it make sense that there should be more homes available to chose from?
It seems to me that this flattening of the home values could be being created on purpose by the banks to stabilize the housing markets. By controlling the inventory of homes for sale, by not releasing homes that have already been foreclosed upon to the market and also not foreclosing on the rest, the average time to foreclose in California is 313 days which is up almost 20% over last year, are the banks now controlling the housing market to the benefit of values rather than the detriment of values?
This is what it looks like to me.
Last night at 830pm I answered a call from a prospective investor who is interested in purchasing a fourplex in the Sacramento region. I went to the MLS, Metrolist Services, Inc. and pulled all of the available fourplexes on the market in Sacramento and Placer Counties.
In both counties combined, there are only 36 fourplexes on the market for sale. 5 to 8 just won’t work on the surface and that will turn into another 10 that won’t work after viewing them, that leaves less than 15 to chose from. That’s not much to chose from.
Summary
Bank involved real estate sales in Sacramento and Placer Counties equal approximately 62% of all sales. The majority of what’s going on now is either short sales or bank owned foreclosures. While this is nothing new, it shows that with a little manipulation, the banks can control our market place if they chose to.
While some will say that this has always been the case, I would contend not to this extent. It hasn’t been the case in the past where the banks control what homes came on the market or not. This market could be being artificially created but that said, in this case, it’s helping the market to recover so it seems. If it continues, we might begin to see gradual appreciation to our housing market which will in turn help recover consumer confidence and increase sales.
Seems like a good formula but, and this is a big but, we’ll see.
Looking for a Realtor to help you purchase or sell a home in Sacramento or Placer County? Please call, text, email or simply fill out the form below and I’ll get back to you promptly.
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Lincoln Crossing Home Sales Report
A Glimmer of Housing Hope??
Over what seems like the last 100 years (actually it’s only been 3 years 
) I’ve been reporting on this housing market is losing value or that housing market is losing value but I think I’ve found a glimmer of hope in an area of Placer county where I least expected it.
A real estate market where housing values have been stable for the last six months….wait..stop…6 months??? How is that possible?
Well, it is and I have the numbers from Metrolist Services, Inc., to prove it.
The average sales price in the Lincoln Crossing area of Lincoln have remained stable for the last 6 months. Economically speaking, this is considered a trend. When you’ve got two quarters of growth in the economy, generally speaking, this is enough to say that a recession has ended.
While we don’t have growth in the typical sense, any deviation from declining looks and feels like growth to me! The values in this area are trending in a very narrow range.
The average sales price in the Lincoln Crossing area has bounced around between $211K to $218K for the last 6 months which is virtually flat lined. Now keep in mind that this is during the annual “height of the buying season” for real estate when prices tend to go up slightly.
During the low point in the buying season, typically November or December through February for our region, prices could still go down but this is a good, good sign for housing values in our area.
Pending Sales Continue Ascent
What continues to surprise me is that the pending sales in the region continue to go up while the sales numbers continue to be flat or slightly down. Are mortgages that hard to get or is there another factor I’m not taking into account that’s causing this trend this year?
Sales have not come close to matching the pending sale numbers all year and while I understand that it takes forever to get a house closed in comparison to years past, it seems like the sales would be increasing to come close to or equal the pending sales number in the preceding month or two months instead of going down in July.
A quick look at the entire Lincoln market shows a similar trend with regard to the average sales price. Other than a spike in April at $231K, the market has been pretty stable in Lincoln, not including Sun City or 12 Bridges, all year long.
Is this the beginning of the end for declining values in Lincoln real estate? Not according to many economists but what we can say for sure is that over the last 6 months, values have been very stable, more stable than in the 6 months prior where the Lincoln real estate market lost about 10% of in the average sales price.
For now, it looks good on paper or html .
If you’re looking to buy or sell a home in the Lincoln real estate market, please call, text, email or simply fill out the form below and I’ll get back to you promptly.
While I don’t consider this too big a deal, this is my 400th article on this site. Amazing!
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Roseville Home Sales Report 95661
Average Sales Price Declines 8.2%
The 95661 zip code of Roseville is not much different from the rest of the region in so far as the current direction of home values are concerned over the last 6 months.
While there has been a reversal of this trend over the last month it’s too early to say that values are now increasing. The sharp increase in the average sales price last month and the national news today from CNN/ Case Schiller saying that home values increased 3.6% nationwide is an attention getter.
The nationwide average sale price is irrelevant to our local market BUT may be relevant in terms of making the mortgage process easier.
Generally, when a sudden spike occurs in the average sales price it means there was a high dollar sale that closed and has temporarily driven the average sales price up.
Number Of Homes For Sale Increases
Unlike the rest of the region where the total number of homes for sale has been declining for almost a year, for the last two months the total number of homes for sale in Roseville real estate 95661 has increased 9.2%, the highest level in over 6 months. This isn’t a good thing as sales have declined since February as the graph indicates.
If the number of homes for sale continues to increase and the pace of sales doesn’t come up home values may continue to decline. Extrapolate that out and this could result in more underwater mortgages, foreclosures and short sales throughout the zip code.
In March, April and May, the pending sales and the homes sold numbers match. This makes sense but as we get into June and July, they don’t. Sales have dropped off significantly while pending sales have continued to rise. The mortgage environment has gotten significantly more difficult in the last 3 months and this could point to, while more buyers and sellers are getting into contract, mortgages aren’t being approved.
The table shows an 80% increase in sales but this isn’t really accurate considering over the last 5 months, home sales have actually declined.
There are indicators that the housing market is getting better nationwide but this is going to be a very slow recovery. I’d like to see more positive news in our region that values have begun to reverse or at a minimum stabilized. That would be just the pick me up that the Sacramento real estate market needs.
Need to buy or sell a home in the Sacramento real estate market or the Roseville real estate market? Please call, text, email or simply fill out the form below and I’ll get back to you promptly.
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Sacramento Regional Home Values Decline
Carmichael Is The Biggest Loser At Over 31%
After seeing the headlines this morning concerning nationwide home values increasing in the second quarter of 2011, I got curious about where we are in the Sacramento real estate market and come cities in the outlying areas.
The numbers that came up were expected and yet some were shocking.
Understand, these are values that are a snapshot of where the average sales price was in July of 2010 versus July of 2011. I don’t suspect that they are the end all, be all but do reflect how much home values have changed in the last year.
|
City |
July 2010 |
July 2011 |
% Change |
| Carmichael | $360000 | $245000 | -31.9 |
| Fair Oaks | $339000 | $256000 | -24.5 |
| Antelope | $201000 | $171000 | -14.9 |
| Rocklin | $320295 | $279247 | -12.81 |
| Citrus Heights | $166651 | $147790 | -11.32 |
| Granite Bay | $636763 | $578830 | -9.41 |
| Lincoln | $286583 | $263290 | -8.13 |
| Sacramento | $188549 | $173334 | -8.06 |
| Roseville | $299000 | $283000 | -5.4 |
| Orangevale | $228868 | $220495 | -3.66 |
What Happened To Single Digit Losses in 2011?
Most economists said last year that the majority of the value losses that we would experience in 2011 would be in the single digit range if any value was lost at all.
Most agreed that we’d see perhaps less than 10% across the board with a flattening out of home values later this year. It’s clear now that the “experts” weren’t correct in their assessment of our market and also, just how hard it is to predict what will happen regarding housing.
What we know is this – the Sacramento real estate market as well as other markets in the region have ALL lost value over the last year.
A 2 or 3 month increase in values nationwide isn’t news when you consider how much value has been lost over the last 12 months. Trends in economics generally don’t become such until 2 quarters have elapsed showing a consistent direction. In other words, we need 6 months of evidence that values are going up for it to begin to become newsworthy.
Two months of value increase isn’t a trend, it’s a start. Let’s hope it continues.
Need to buy or sell a home in the Sacramento real estate market? Please call, text, email or simply fill out the form below and I’ll respond to you promptly.
We handle real estate sales in Sacramento and South Placer County. If you’re looking for representation in real estate matters, we’d like to hear from you.
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