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QUICK STATS: Average Sales Price In Rocklin Declines
UPDATE: 4.51% Decrease From June To July
The end of July has come and gone and the average sales price in the 95765 zip code of Rocklin appears to have declined again.
The average home sold is:
4 bedrooms, 2.81 baths, 2359 square feet and sold in 91 days.
The average listing price for this home was $308, 003 and the average sold price was $303,993, a 4.51% decline from $318,359 average sales price for the same house in June.
As it is the end of the month, there are still homes to be recorded and sold this month so these numbers may change between now and the first week of August.
If you’re looking to buy or sell a home in the Rocklin or Roseville area, please call, text email or simply fill out the form below and I’ll get back to you promptly.
Thanks for visiting!
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The Cardinal Rule of Home Buying
If You’re Buying A Home, You’ve GOT To Read This!
I’ve worked with so many buyers I’ve lost track. First time home buyers are especially fun to work with because, well, they listen to you. LOL!
I’ve had very few problems with this particular issue but I know some agents who have had issues and this information could save your home purchase
Whether you are a first time home buyer or a move up home buyer doesn’t matter. This information applies to ANYONE buying a home now or in the future.
Are you ready for this tidbit of wisdom?? Brace yourself cause it’s comin’!
THE Cardinal Rule of Home Buying
So you’re looking and you’ve found a home with your friendly neighborhood Realtor, namely me 
! We enter escrow and you start preparing to move. Knowing you are moving into a home larger than what you’ve been living in, you need more furniture.
QUESTION: Do you go out and buy brand new furniture on credit? NO YOU DON’T!
When you’re in escrow, DON’T BUY ANYTHING, DON’T GET MARRIED, DON’T BE LATE ON ANY PAYMENT!
Ahem!
When you’re purchasing a home, your credit report is hugely important. Any changes in your credit report can kill your loan especially any late payments. Your credit report will be pulled twice – once when you apply for your mortgage and again to verify nothing has changed just before your lender funds your loan.
You could be ready to move, movers scheduled, move out inspection with your landlord scheduled (and your home is already rented to someone else!), all of your stuff is packed and in boxes when your lender calls and says “Ummm, Houston, we have a problem!”
Now your wife or husband will hate you, the kids are ticked off cause they aren’t going to swim in the nice pool in the backyard of the foreclosure you just bought at a 20% discount to appraised value and you have to postpone Christmas with your in-laws (bad thing?) in your new home because YOU DID SOMETHING MORONIC!
If you do decide to buy something on credit or get married or are late on a payment that reports to credit reporting agencies, it could be a year to two years before you can buy again. That means, in our current market, that you could be priced out of the market as when you make mistakes like this, prices go up on you just to test your commitment to purchase. (Trust me, it happens! Murphy dictated)
Have any more questions about purchasing a home in the Sacramento, Rocklin or Roseville real estate markets? Please call, text, email or simply fill out the form below and I’ll get right back to you.
Thanks for visiting!
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We’re Going To Lose 20% More Home Value?
Really?
Lately, a very well respected housing/market analyst, A. Gary Shilling, has come out saying that housing will drive the country into a second recession in 2012 and that housing will lose another 20% in value or more. Click here.
The premise of his prediction is the current inventory levels of homes for sale is so high and demand is so low that it will be 4 to 5 years before all of the inventory available for sale is absorbed by buyers.
“Over supply is the enemy of values” Mr. Shilling has cited and I agree with him wholeheartedly.
Is that what is going to happen in the Sacramento region? Will there be another drop in values of 20% or more? I can’t answer that question and honestly, neither can A. Gary Shilling although I believe his logic to be very sound.
What about the Sacramento real estate market? Do we have an oversupply of homes on the market right now? Is it coming and if so, from where?
Homes For Sale In The Sacramento and Placer County Real Estate Markets
Currently, Sacramento county has about 2.7 months of inventory available for sale and that has been trending downward since a high of 4.3 months at the beginning of the year.
While I don’t believe this is relevant industry wide right now, a “balanced” market inventory level, favoring neither buyers or sellers, is said to be 6 months worth of homes for sale. Sacramento county hasn’t had 6 months of inventory on the market since April/May of 2008 which would signify a shortage of homes available for sale, aka a seller’s market, yet….prices have gone down. In a seller’s market where the selection of homes to purchase is low and buyer demand is high drives prices upward.
The Sacramento county real estate market has averaged 3.02 months of inventory for sale over the last 3 years. This is not a glut of homes for sale or an oversupply of homes for sale according to what has commonly been accepted by the industry.
As the above graph and table indicate, over the last 10 months, the total number of homes for sale has declined, not increased, 22.5%. In Placer county the numbers are very similar.
In both Placer and Sacramento counties, the picture is the same. Inventory is down to under 3 months of inventory, pending sales have risen and sales have been very steady.
So what about the rest of the country? If there are so many housing units available for sale, where are they? Fortunately, I have many Realtor friends throughout the nation and I took advantage of those connections to get a feel for what everyone else is seeing throughout.
Over the last week, I called or emailed agents in 12 different market across the country. Here’s what I found out:
Jonathan Bunn, TheRealEstateBakery.com, Washington DC – Jonathan has been around and reporting on the DC market from his blog for at least 3 years. He said that the DC market is an anomaly compared to the rest of the nation right now. They do not have an over supply issue currently.
Scott Saghirian, TopTechAgent.com, Maryland – Scott told me in an email that areas outside the “hub” do have an oversupply of homes but that the DC area is in better shape than many other markets across the country without a large supply of foreclosures or short sales.
Chad Lariscy, North Georgia Mountains, TheFrontPorchView.com - Chad told me that “Market is crazy. Foreclosures are still dominating, about 64% of all sales. Land and Vacant Lot has seen about 70% depreciation. As far as inventory, we are hurting for the good stuff to sell. The good ones are gone quickly!”
Chad’s market is a second home market primarily. Most of his buyers come from the Atlanta area and anyone looking for property in the Blue Ridge Mountains.
Thomas Ferent, MrLakeFront.net, Maine – Tom’s market is a second home market as well. Tom said, “Yes, too much supply and not enough demand is driving prices lower.”
Leigh Fortuna, MiamiSelectRealEstate.com, Miami, Florida – The Miami market is a market unto it’s own. They have a very high percentage of foreign investors and home buyers coming into there market. Leigh says that the Miami market is not oversupplied at all.
She believes, as I’m beginning to about the Sacramento real estate market, that Nevada, California, Florida and Arizona will be coming out of this earlier than the rest of the country as these states ran up very quickly while other states did not. Therefore, if there is another 20% to lose, it won’t be in the states that were affected earlier into the downturn but will be the states that felt the downturn in 2008 or 2009 or later.
TJ Harris, FountainhillsUpClose.com, Phoenix, Arizona – TJ spoke with me at length about her market and what she is seeing. She said they have low inventory and multiple offers on anything that is a quality listing. She said the rental market is going gangbusters right now and also that foreclosure filings are down as well as short sales being able to get done much quicker than in the past few years.
Kari Lundin, DuplexChick.com, Minneapolis, Minnesota – Kari told me that this week alone, her market is down 16.1% in new listings coming onto the market. She believes though that there is a window of opportunity for sellers in her market and that the low supply issues could be short lived.
Paul Reddam, Homesville.com, Austin, Texas – Paul says that in his market, he has yet to work with a foreclosure or a short sale. I envy him as that seems to be all I deal with. He says his market is not oversupplied in the least and that sales are brisk. He sees prices rising in the Austin area.
When the Sacramento region market was riding high in 2005, 2006 and 2007, the Austin market was tanking. Now we’re tanking and the Austin market is moving along nicely.
Ro Troia, BlogTheRocklies.com, Boulder/Denver market – Ro told me that the high end properties are moving better than they were last year and that they have no oversupply of homes for sale in fact they are bordering not having much to sell. She mentioned condos are slow and the rate of foreclosures and short sales is declining. Prices are stable in her market.
Kathy Vaughan, GardenValleyCurrents.com, Garden Valley, Idaho – Kathy emailed me today and said that her market is oversupplied with homes for sale right now. Sales are up 75% over last year yet inventory is up 50% over last year.
Dr. John McMillen, ClovisExperts.com, Clovis, California – John and I have been friends for some time as we both are active reporters of real estate conditions in our respective markets. He says that their inventory situation is much like that of the Sacramento region.
From a newsletter John sent me “The number of foreclosures entering the market continues to remain fairly low but steady and from all the sources I follow I have heard that it will continue to do so. We continue to bump along this bottom with a slight uptick in prices due to the multiple offers out there but will probably ease back down again after summer. All the industry experts continually state that we have several more years of this to contend with unless the wild card is played….the High Speed Rail.”
Jack LeVine, VeryVintageVegas.com, Las Vegas, Nevada – Jack is a very busy agent in the vintage home market in Las Vegas and has been for years. He told me today that in the section of the market he specializes in there is a lack of quality homes to sell. Las Vegas was and still is the hotbed of foreclosure activity in the nation.
Jack says he doesn’t see how it would be possible for values to decline another 20% when every listing he tracks is selling for more than list and has multiple offers. As well as Miami, he says there are a lot of foreign investors from Canada and China purchasing in his market currently. Las Vegas is an investors heaven right now according to Jack.
Is There An Inventory Issue or Isn’t There?
Out of the 12 agents I’ve spoken with, only 2 to 3 said they have an oversupply of homes to sell. The remaining agents surveyed said that indeed they don’t have enough homes to sell or they are not oversupplied.
There has been rumors that the banks were going to suddenly release a lot of the homes they are currently sitting on to the market. When you think about it, that would be kind of a dumb thing to do. The FDIC has already lifted the restrictions on the banks and lenders to allow them to keep non performing assets on their “books” as long as they like. Dumping homes onto the market would cost them billions in lost home values.
My Take
My feeling is that California, Arizona, Nevada and Florida, being the first into the housing downturn and hit the hardest, will be spared further “free falling” of home values but the other areas of the nation where there are unemployment issues who got into the downturn late and didn’t have a huge run up in home prices will be affected by larger value losses.
I see the Sacramento regional real estate market to continue to decline gradually but I don’t see an enormous drop of 20% or more on our horizon. 6% to 10%? Perhaps but 20% just doesn’t seem possible due to market conditions right now.
As the 8 ball so aptly states…”all signs point to no”. 
What do you think? Will our market lose 20% more or will we just bump along the bottom till a full on recovery? Chime in!
Looking for an agent to help you buy a home in the Sacramento region? Please call, email, text or simply fill out the form below and we’ll be in touch with you promptly.
Looking for the value of your Rocklin or Roseville home? Please go to Rocklin House Values.com or Roseville House Values.com for up to date values of homes in your neighborhood.
Thanks for visiting!
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Is It A Good Time To Buy A Home?
I Think So..Here’s Why
The Sacramento regional real estate market has been pummeled since 2007. Foreclosure and short sales have been the buzz words as well as my personal favorite, “submit your highest and best offer”. Counter offers have virtually vanished from the industry if submitting on a bank owned home.
Lately, however, market indicators are pointing the way toward a housing stabilization. We are now somewhat free of government intervention and as such, there hasn’t been any incentive (other than historically low interest rates and home prices) to purchase other than the desire to do so.
Understand that a shift must be made in our thinking of what buying a principal residence, your personal home, represents – a place to live not an investment.
There is a distinction between principal residence and investment residence purchases. The market correction that we have been experiencing since 2007 has put an end, even if temporarily, to the thought that our principal residence is an investment. Principal residence purchases and an investment residence purchases are done so with differing sets of goals and considerations.
That said, it’s a good time to buy either an investment or principal residence and here’s why:
Interest Rates Are Low
As of July 7th, the average 30 year mortgage interest rate was 4.60% according to FreddieMac.com. The term average suggests that even lower interests rates are available for a 30 year fixed mortgage.
Home Prices Are Below 10 Year Lows
The average sales price in Sacramento County in June of 2011 is $11K lower than June of 2001. See the graph below.
This is the case in Placer County as well where the average sales price is $4K below the 10 year average.
In both graphs, you can see that in the last year, the price declines have not been as steep as they were from 2007 to 2009. Couple that with a luke warming of the economic picture nationwide and this is what the majority of economists saying there are positive signs in housing. The report is for a slowing in the home value declines to a stabilization in home prices as early as the end of 2011 to 2012.
A slowing of value declines means that your initial investment has a higher probability of remaining intact aka..you won’t lose your down payment to value declines and if you do, it won’t be much. Reference the rethinking of what a principal residence purchase is mentioned above.
The old adage holds true for the purchasing of anything and that is to “buy low and sell high”. Right now, we’re in the buy low phase.
Deduction of Mortgage Interest
The deduction of mortgage interest, while it’s still here, is a great incentive to purchase a home. The write off alone saves thousands of dollars each year in taxes. Did you know that we are one of the only countries in the world to have this home owning benefit? Not even Canada allows their home owners to write off their mortgage interest.
Financially, there are pluses and minuses to this but right now, it’s definitely an incentive to purchase.
And Finally…It’s Cheaper To Buy Than Rent
The average home sold in Rocklin since March 1, 2011 was 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, 2431 square feet and sold for $316,673. With a 10% down payment at the prevailing average interest rate of 4.60%, the payment on this home with principal, taxes, interest and PMI would be $1790.93 per month. With 20% down, the monthly mortgage payment would be $1628.59.
To rent a 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath home in Rocklin, according to Craigslist.org right now, costs $2122.50 per month. That’s a 10 home average rental cost. Not to mention you get the mortgage interest deduction saving you thousands more per year in the process.
Averaging the two payments above together, purchasing would cost and average of $1709.76 while the average cost of renting the same home is $2122.50. Buying a home saves over $400 per month in this scenario in monthly costs in the Rocklin area alone.
There is a lot of doom and gloom in the market news right now and people are afraid to purchase. What we’ve been through in housing has been dramatic but that’s in the past. Home ownership affords you advantages that renting does not.
All of the above information was pulled from public sources and is verifiable. If you have just good credit and a smallish down payment, you should definitely consider purchasing a home and soon.
Looking for an agent to purchase a home in the greater Sacramento area? Please give me a call, email, text or simply fill out the form below and I’ll get back to you promptly.
Looking for the value of your Rocklin or Roseville home? Go to Rocklin House Values.com or Roseville House Values.com for up to date home values in your neighborhood.
Thanks for visiting!
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Average Sales Price In Roseville DECLINES In March
Roseville 95661 Zip Code Loses Value
While this may be an anomaly, the Roseville zip code of 95661 has lost 13% of it’s value over the last 6 months. Scratch that, it’s not an anomaly. A quick check of the other zip codes in Roseville reflect similar losses.
This is indeed an odd turn of events considering that pending sales are way up, inventory is coming down yet prices are still descending. The only thing I can think of is that the sweet spot between homes for sale and demand have not yet intersected. If that is true, then values will continue to decline until that point is reached.
Available Homes For Sale Declines
Over the last six months, the total amount of homes for sale has declined 34% while sales have increased 41.7%. Pending sales have leveled out but you can see with these dynamics we should be seeing a stabilization of prices but clearly, that’s not happening.
Why do you think this is? It doesn’t seem to make much sense. It’s a great thing for buyers but for sellers, 65% to 70% of seller’s are banks, it’s not so good.
Those sitting on an underwater mortgage are getting further underwater and that isn’t a good thing at all. An underwater mortgage, in our case, is a long term problem.
Who knows when the value will come back and restore equity to the region. My sense is that this won’t be happening for many years to come.
Months Of Inventory Declines
To add even more confusion to the mix, the total months of inventory has declined as well. In one month, we’ve gone from 5.1 months of inventory to 2.1 months of inventory. “Inventory” is simply defined as the total number of homes for sale.
On the surface, this makes the value loss look so much more confusing but I’m thinking, as I said before, the “sweet spots” have yet to intersect.
It’s an interesting time in the Roseville real estate market! You don’t often see this combination of factors at the same time.
Are you looking for a home in Roseville? We can help you find it. Buying or selling, we can help. Call, text, email or just simply fill out the form below and we’ll get right back to you.
Thanks for visiting!
Also, thanks to TrendVision and Metrolist, Inc. for the great graphs and data. Cool huh?? 
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Your Mortgage Payment Just Went Up $100
Interest Rates On The Rise
If you’ve been sitting on the fence waiting for something to shift, for something to pop, for anything to rear it’s head to let you know the market is going in ANY given direction, maybe your sign is here.
Mortgage interest rates are on the rise. The average mortgage interest rate in November was somewhere around 4.42% making a $200,000 mortgage cost about $1000 but now, at 5.23%, that same mortgage has gone up to about $1100. That’s the reward for holding your breath!! LOL
That said, the average sales price has gone down in the last quarter of last year to soften the blow but over time, waiting to buy could have cost quite a bit more than the difference between the two.
In addition to that….
Pending Sales Numbers Skyrocket
I was just looking at the pending sale numbers for both Placer and Sacramento Counties. The pending sale numbers for January increased almost 51% in Sacramento county and in Placer county they increased almost 83%.
Seems like buyers have come to the party. With activity like this the inventory numbers are sure to come down, something we’ve already been seeing in both areas since October of 2010.
While there is typically a jump in the pending sale numbers from December to January, this is unprecedented in recent history.
Based on the pending sale numbers, there is only 2.2 months of inventory left in Placer county and 2.4 months left in Sacramento County. That is pretty amazing considering the slowdown in sales that occurred from June to December of 2010.
Looking for a home to buy?? Now might be a good time to get it done. If you need assistance, please feel free to fill out the form below and we’ll get back to you promptly.
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New California Tax Credit Bill Signed
Home Buyers Get $10000 For Purchasing in 2010
Governor Schwarzenegger just signed into law a bill, AB 183, that gives an incentive for home purchases between May 1, 2010 and December 31, 2010. Buyers will receive a tax credit of up to $10000 distributed equaling over a three year period for purchasing a home in 2010. The total amount the bill allows is $200 million.
$100 mil is for first time home buyers of existing homes and $100 mil is for anyone purchasing a new construction, unoccupied home or what’s commonly referred to as “standing inventory” in new construction. These days, there isn’t a lot of standing inventory available but this may prompt home builders to put some people back to work.
The state tax credit is starts where the federal tax credit ends on either April 30th or June 30th. The tax credit will be granted on a first come, first served basis until all funds are exhausted or December 31st, whichever comes first.
The home buyer must not be a dependent nor can a home be purchased from a relative.
The last tax credit from the state was approved in February 2009 and ran out just four months later. While the total amount of the credit has been expanded, demand will still be high. 10,659 buyers were able to take advantage of the last tax credit.
Looking for a new home in the Sacramento real estate market? Please fill out the form below and we’ll give you a call asap.
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