Comments on: Inventory Of Single Family Homes Continues Decline http://www.sacramentorealestateviews.com/2010/01/inventory-of-single-family-homes-continues-decline/ Residential and Residential Investment Specialist. One click access to the best real estate for sale in Sacramento and Placer Counties. Tue, 03 Jan 2012 23:20:24 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: robsaxe http://www.sacramentorealestateviews.com/2010/01/inventory-of-single-family-homes-continues-decline/comment-page-1/#comment-1158 robsaxe Sat, 09 Jan 2010 15:32:26 +0000 http://www.sacramentorealestateviews.com/?p=3179#comment-1158 You're absolutely right, Mark. GREAT comment, thank you so much for adding it. You’re absolutely right, Mark. GREAT comment, thank you so much for adding it.

]]> By: Mark Hanson http://www.sacramentorealestateviews.com/2010/01/inventory-of-single-family-homes-continues-decline/comment-page-1/#comment-1157 Mark Hanson Sat, 09 Jan 2010 15:29:28 +0000 http://www.sacramentorealestateviews.com/?p=3179#comment-1157 Great blog. Don't forget the supply source from failed mods. Remember, foreclosures have only been running about 33% of potential because of the govt endorsed mortgage mod plan - HAMP. But as you have read it is not performing well. 2010 will be the year that these millions of foreclosures held up in the pipeline in 2009 are sorted out either through foreclosures, deeds in lieu or preferably short sales. Because of the pent up foreclosures supply hung up in the pipeline, foreclosures could double in 2010 and short sales go up exponentially. The 2009 market was not a real market in that the distress supply was held back and demand was artificially stimulated through the tax credit and rates that likely will not exist in 2010. This year the market will have to absorb this extra inventory with higher rates and perhaps no tax credit for part of the year, which could prove challenging. Just my 2 cents. Great blog. Don’t forget the supply source from failed mods. Remember, foreclosures have only been running about 33% of potential because of the govt endorsed mortgage mod plan – HAMP. But as you have read it is not performing well. 2010 will be the year that these millions of foreclosures held up in the pipeline in 2009 are sorted out either through foreclosures, deeds in lieu or preferably short sales. Because of the pent up foreclosures supply hung up in the pipeline, foreclosures could double in 2010 and short sales go up exponentially.

The 2009 market was not a real market in that the distress supply was held back and demand was artificially stimulated through the tax credit and rates that likely will not exist in 2010. This year the market will have to absorb this extra inventory with higher rates and perhaps no tax credit for part of the year, which could prove challenging.

Just my 2 cents.

]]> By: robsaxe http://www.sacramentorealestateviews.com/2010/01/inventory-of-single-family-homes-continues-decline/comment-page-1/#comment-1150 robsaxe Thu, 07 Jan 2010 21:40:06 +0000 http://www.sacramentorealestateviews.com/?p=3179#comment-1150 Hi Rachel, Thanks for your comment. That's a tough one to pinpoint as no one seems to have any clue as to how or when. I've heard anything from the next 30 days to after the first quarter to the government creating a "asset clearing house" much like the RTC of the late 80's. ('89 I think) No one really knows but even if it doesn't come on all at once, with demand down after April 1st, even a trickle will quickly increase inventory levels. In December, 829 detached single family homes sold in the 3 county area. Since January 1, 220 have come on the market. (these numbers are estimates) It's not hard to see that if sales decline by 25% and the inventory increases by just 25% we would've had 622 sales in December and 275 new on the market so far in 2010. In a month that's 1100 homes new with 622 sold leaving an excess of 478 in the month. That would add almost 6000 homes to the inventory in this example if a condition like this continued. (unlikely but fun to extrapolate) Thanks again for your comment! Hi Rachel, Thanks for your comment. That’s a tough one to pinpoint as no one seems to have any clue as to how or when. I’ve heard anything from the next 30 days to after the first quarter to the government creating a “asset clearing house” much like the RTC of the late 80′s. (’89 I think) No one really knows but even if it doesn’t come on all at once, with demand down after April 1st, even a trickle will quickly increase inventory levels.
In December, 829 detached single family homes sold in the 3 county area. Since January 1, 220 have come on the market. (these numbers are estimates) It’s not hard to see that if sales decline by 25% and the inventory increases by just 25% we would’ve had 622 sales in December and 275 new on the market so far in 2010. In a month that’s 1100 homes new with 622 sold leaving an excess of 478 in the month. That would add almost 6000 homes to the inventory in this example if a condition like this continued. (unlikely but fun to extrapolate)
Thanks again for your comment!

]]> By: Rachel http://www.sacramentorealestateviews.com/2010/01/inventory-of-single-family-homes-continues-decline/comment-page-1/#comment-1149 Rachel Thu, 07 Jan 2010 21:13:41 +0000 http://www.sacramentorealestateviews.com/?p=3179#comment-1149 Excellent article.... grim news, but pretty much how it is. When do you think we will start seeing the shadow inventory making its way onto the MLS? Excellent article…. grim news, but pretty much how it is. When do you think we will start seeing the shadow inventory making its way onto the MLS?

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