Sacramento Real Estate Views

2009 Rocklin Home Sales Report

Median Home Price Falls In 95765

It’s been a tough year for real estate values in some areas of the Sacramento region, again.  Efforts by the government to stop the slide of foreclosures and the seemingly constant bleeding of home values has only served to slow the inevitable. (boy I sound bleak this morning!)

Are we at the bottom of this downturn?  Many economists, including those at CSUS, don’t think so.  I tend to agree based on more variables than there is time to cite and have been covered aptly here and elsewhere.

In Rocklin, unlike the below $250K price range in Sacramento where sales price averages have gone up, values are still going down.

This year, the median home price bottomed out at $299,500 for a 4 bedroom, 3 bath, 2350 square foot home in the third quarter.  Incidentally, per quarter, the characteristics of the median home fit this description.

In the last quarter of 2009, the median home price rose to $314,000.  I don’t see that trend continuing but what happens is up for debate and to be perfectly honest, it’s all speculation.

If this downturn has taught us anything it’s that the experts only have a vague idea of what the future holds and as one of my clients says, “only people new to the industry and fools try to predict the future”.  I agree with this completely.

Average Sales Prices Trend Down

Although the average sales price for a home in 95765 bounced around a lot this year, the trend, as is indicated by the median home price numbers, has been downward.

The first quarter proved promising then reality set in going into the second quarter and, as indicated by the graph, you can guess the rest.

While the fourth quarter of the year shows a bit of a resurgence in home values, I just don’t expect that to last much into this year if at all.

Will the Rocklin market lose more value or bounce along the bottom?  To answer that we’d have to know we were at the bottom in the third quarter and it’s just to early in this cycle to say definitively this is the case.

For now we have the immediate past which shows, while the third quarter was poor, the fourth quarter showed advances back over the $300K mark for the average home sold.

Sales Remain Strong

The silver lining is that sales have stayed very consistent in 2009.  The fourth quarter especially showed a very strong finish to the year, comparatively.  Despite inventory reductions as the year progressed, sales remained strong.

The increase in the median home price in the fourth quarter jumping from $299,000 to $314,000 is indicative of a competitive market place.

Could’ve been that the median home sales price going below $300K, even if slightly, boasted the value of the area to buyers resulting in more sales.

Looking at it that way, the trend could produce maintained consistency or a slight decline in sales resulting a drop in the median home sales price down closer to $300K if buyer sentiment remains the same.

Lending has gotten tighter and getting a loan is tough right now.  The first time home buyer tax credit expires April 30th.  Our local economy isn’t looking like recovery is on the horizon until 2012 possibly longer.  Unemployment is somewhere near 15%.

None of that bodes well for home sales or values. But we’ll have to wait and see.

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Tags: real estate agents rocklin, rocklin real estate statistics

This entry was posted on Sunday, January 17th, 2010 at 10:05 am and is filed under Home Sales Reports, Rocklin. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

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