February, 2008
Fencing…a different perspective
February 25th, 2008 categories: Market Commentary, New Home Communities
I got an email today and while I haven’t heard this a lot lately, I guess it can be taken as a good sign. It read like this:
“Rob, We understand that the housing industry is suppose to continue to fall into next year……. We are holding off to see what the market will bring.”
There is a lot of fence sitting going on out there right now, here’s what I think.
“Last year about this time, just prior to the mortgage crisis, the NAR and others stated that they foresaw that 2007 would be a flattening year with a nice recovery, or soft landing, occurring in 2008. As we saw, that wasn’t exactly how it went!
I guess the short answer is that no one really knows what the market will do. It could get worse or it could begin to flatten or it could get better. Based on history over the last 30 years, this is one of the worst downturns of them all. (If I think about this honestly, I feel very comfortable about the future!)
We are at 2003 level prices currently in the resale market and new home builders, traditional and active adult, are generally in a better position than resale. They are the last to feel it and the first to rebound. This is due to many factors.
The following link will take you to a couple of articles in favor of buying now and I’m sure you don’t need any information resources against buying now.
Will prices descend below 2003 levels? If I could answer that question, I’d be a bazillionaire.
Buying California real estate has always been a good investment if held for the long term. The general rule of thumb is that it doubles in value every 10 years. So I would say that if you’re planning on buying and then selling in the next couple years, then analyzing the market on a micro level is definately the strategy.
However, if that isn’t the plan, I believe its a great time to buy. I don’t personally believe 
that prices will go that much lower but you never know. I could be wrong. Many were wrong about 2007.
I do know this: 10 years or even 5 years from today, there will be many people who will be kicking themselves for not buying this year. Do you want to be one of those folks?” (I even think in 2 years, there will be A LOT of kicking going on!)
So how’d I do? I’m almost afraid of asking what you’d say…I’ve seen some of the nasty press out there lately. Be gentle…aside from what your reading, there are some bright sides. Things are getting better, it’s a great time to buy.
Why don’t you come down off that fence, aye? I think even Chicken Little just bought a home! (or two!) 
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Glenbrooke by Del Webb - Premier Active Adult Living
February 17th, 2008 categories: New Home Communities
Glenbrooke by Del Webb
Glenbrooke by Del Webb is a beautiful community of 631 homes located in the southern most part of the City of Elk Grove.
Glenbrooke features 6 models ranging in size from 1257 to 2252 sq. ft. two and three bedroom detached single family homes, all single story. Standard features include granite counters, with choice of color, 18″ tile floors, stainless steel appliances and much, much more.
The entire community is surrounded by walking and bike trails that weave through the Madeira Master Planned Community.
The Arbour Lodge
The Glenbrooke Community Center and will host indoor activities rooms, big screen television, a fitness center and a full time lifestyle director who will develop clubs and activities for the residents of the community. Outside are tennis courts, a swimming pool/spa and bocce ball. The Arbour Lodge will be opening sometime in the mid March to mid April time frame.
The Del Webb Lifestyle
Since 1960, Del Webb has developed communities specifically for people 55 years old or better. This means that the things that you would usually see in an average, everyday community will be absent at a Del Webb community. That is the reason people choose the active adult lifestyle. You’re surrounded by people who share your interest and life experiences.
To experience the Del Webb Lifestyle, please feel free to contact me. Click here. If you’re already registered with Del Webb and Pulte Homes, I won’t be able to help you get the best deal on a new home. In any case, please feel free to contact me with any questions.
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Are you FED up?
February 16th, 2008 categories: Market Commentary
Who the heck can figure out what’s going on with interest rates right now? The FED lowers the prime rate which, in the past, has brought down the cost of borrowing. But not this time. So what’s the problem?
The credit/mortgage crunch that started in 2007, and now with inflationary concerns, is still and will continue to affect the real estate market for some time to come.
While FreddieMac.com is reporting an average interest rate of 5.72% for a conforming 30 year fixed, lending rates are up. Two rate decreases in the last 2.5 weeks, FreddieMac reporting well under 6% yet getting a fixed rate below 6% without paying points is next to impossible. To say this reflects a lack of confidence in the economy is an understatement.
While the FED is considering another rate cut, the concerns over inflation are pushing mortgage rates higher. The bond data is good but inflation is the real concern at the moment. Until the concern over inflation subsides, don’t expect a decrease in mortgage rates.
The rule of thumb? FED rate cuts do not always mean that mortgage rates with follow suit. There are many more economic factors that enter in to the mix that determine what lenders will charge for their money. For more on this, check out this article from MortgageNewsDaily.com. Great place for “truth in lending”.
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Bubble Bursts In Elk Grove = Unbalanced Media Coverage!
February 14th, 2008 categories: Market Commentary
According to a friend of mine in the resale side of the industry, Lyon Real Estate pulled their corporate advertising from the Sacramento Bee a year or so ago. Correspondingly, I noticed at least, there was a decrease in the amount of articles about how bad our real estate market has been. Funny, money talks and (beep!) walks..I guess the sacbee was walking. (do you smell that? smells familiar, but I can’t place it.)
Recently, the SacBee ran an article about the “implosion” in the Elk Grove real estate market and it’s true, Elk Grove has been hard hit this time around. One of this city’s neighbors, Stockton, Ca has also had a rough go of it being named the “Foreclosure Capitol of the Nation”. Man, I’d hate to run for re-election in that town.
As there always is two sides to EVERY story, I thought I’d share
a bright spot about the Elk Grove real estate market that you may not know. Although the SacBee also ran an article about the top selling new home communities in the Sacramento Region, it was buried under a pile of….well, you get the picture… and went largely unnoticed.
Glenbrooke, A Del Webb Community: Just under a year ago, Pulte Homes and Del Webb opened Glenbrooke on Bruceville Road between Elk Grove Blvd. & Whitelock Pkwy. The community offers six models ranging in size from the mid 1200’s to the mid 2200’s sq. ft., two and three bedroom single family detached homes. Last year, as reported by the SacBee, Glenbrooke was the #2 sellling community in the ENTIRE Sacramento region. The community features a 9000 sq. ft. community center with a full time Lifestyle Manager whose job it is to ensure that anyone looking for a good time, an awesome social experience with other like minded folks finds just that. Active Adult living, 55+ and better, at it’s finest.
The bright side about our market currently is that it’s a great time to buy; opportunity is everywhere. It’s unfortunate that so many are struggling to hold on but if they do, the market will reward them. It always has. Good times in our market are coming back soon. Hopefully with a bit more sanity than the last time things took off. I don’t know about you but I’d rather not see this type of market for many years to come!
A little balance in the media is needed. Let’s change the mindset and we can collectively change our results.
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Shots? We don’t need no stinkin SHOTS!
February 13th, 2008 categories: A Boy and His Dad
About 3 years ago, I became a father for the second time. My kids, Sarah and Ryan are a bit over 20 years apart. To say my experience the second time around was different was just a flat understatement.
Both my kids are handsome but Mr. Ryan is scary cute. (I’m not sure how that happened. Milkman?) The picture to right was an outfit my wife made him for Halloween this year. Little paper surfboard, Hawaiian outfit my mother in law brought back from the islands and a cookie he as given from someone who said for the 500,000th time in his short 3 year life “what a cutie”. Do I get tired of hearing it? Not on your life. He’s not only cute…he’s just awesome. I’m gushing now, I’ll stop.
Last night, we had to take Mr. Ryan to the doctor to get him some antibiotics. You see, we have him in daycare twice a week and he picked up a little strep infection and promptly gave it to my wife and me. She’s on them too and I’m just too damn stubborn to go to the doctor. (wife says I’m going tomorrow 
)
Well, you see, Mr. Ryan doesn’t like to take oral medicine. Spits it up, it’s a whole scene I won’t describe..pink throw up..just not pretty..
Anyway, so we go and my wife opts for the single shot, once and were done, penicillin dose. So we hold Mr. Ryan down and the Nurse Practitioner pulls out a 2″ needle, pinches the crap out of his little leg and jams it in. Mr. Ryan is now screaming that scream that usually results in my pulling out my Uzi and clearing the room of the mess that’s assembled there.
But, alas, I’m working on my emotional control and trying my best not to make a scene with someone who either doesn’t have kids and/or lacks the compassion of an Al-Quida member while Mr. Ryan is going through his “Daddy, hold me” repetitions…it was just more than I could handle. It was more traumatic for me than it was for him. I’m such a wimp for this kid!
In the end, he’s fine and I need therapy! Isn’t this supposed to be the other way around? Thank goodness my wife is patient to a point!
He’ll probably be a bit sore tomorrow but we’ll go play in the park tomorrow, maybe go to the snow and he’ll have a great time. I’ll make sure of that.
Nothing a little Jamba Juice won’t cure! Oh how easy it used to be..
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“It’s a great time to buy” According To Someone other than Me!
February 12th, 2008 categories: Market Commentary
Negative press about the Sacramento Area real estate market abounds. It can be found anywhere. Most is justified and some is just plain silly.
This article from News Home Magazine points to the fact that now is a great time to buy a home based on the facts that:
1. Interest rates are still at all time lows. While credit may be tighter, it’s cheaper than ever
2. Home prices have dropped dramatically. This is beating a seriously dead horse, in fact, I’m almost sick of talking about. Aren’t you?
Keep in mind the following about the general rule of thumb about California real estate; it doubles in value roughly, every 10 years.
The market we came out of almost 3 years ago had us thinking that we could buy a home and sell it in 2 years and double our money. This is a long term investment and a damn good one. (if you call 10 years “long term”)
Am I sickeningly positive about where we are now? Well maybe but if you ignore the opportunity now, you’ll hate yourself later! ( how cliche is that!)
Enjoy the spin!
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At the Bottom? Is Our Market Coming Out of the Trash Can?
February 11th, 2008 categories: Market Commentary
I got an email last week that spoke of a couple of indicators that point to our market coming out of the most recent downturn.
How do we know when the market is going to hit bottom? Honestly, that is a tough question that even the most seasoned real estate brokers won’t even attempt to answer…the “uhs” and “wells” flow like water and no one can say for sure where or when the market will touch back down and begin to head up.
There are a few things happening now though that suggest there might be some light at the end of the tunnel:
1. Investors are returning to the marketplace. I speak to Realtors everyday and one of the things I’m hearing is that there are more investors in the market now than there has been since 2000 to 2003. This is an indication that value is returning to our market.
2. We’re seeing more multiple offers. I just closed a deal with a Prudential Realtor from Elk Grove who told me that she just lost a deal to a multiple offer situation. Multiple offers mean that the property was priced correctly and multiple offers drove that price up. Its a win for a seller no matter what market you’re in.
3. New home traffic is way up. This I see up close and personal everyday. Interest rates are low and so are the prices. This combo is an ideal buying environment. The only hang up here is credit. Money isn’t falling from the sky like it used to. For those who are qualified and have a bit of liquidity, gee whiz what a great time to buy.
There are other signs like mortgage applications on the rise, an increase in permits issued, etc. Its still early yet. Rest assured, this is a great time to buy a home or investment property.
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